What To Expect in Fiscal Policy During Trump’s First Year

From tax reductions to cuts in government spending to raising tariffs, President-elect Donald Trump’s economic proposals could result in big changes in fiscal policy in 2025.

Fiscal policy is tied to government action on spending or taxes, either of which can help boost economic production. Fewer taxes can give businesses and individuals more money to spend to help the economy. Likewise, targeted government spending programs can give people more money or encourage businesses to grow faster, potentially hiring more people and boosting economic impacts. 

Here’s what to expect from fiscal policy during Trump’s first year in office.

Tax Cut Extensions Likely to Be Trump’s Top Fiscal Priority

The first order of business for Trump will likely be to ensure that the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act is extended before key provisions expire at the end of 2025.

While that would help keep taxes low for many taxpayers, it would not appreciably change their finances since it would maintain the same tax rates and policies established when the legislation was passed in 2017.

“Extending them does not provide additional fiscal stimulus,” Wells Fargo senior economist Michael Pugliese said of the proposal. “An extension is about preventing taxes from going up. It does not reduce the tax burden further.”

The Tax Policy Center estimated that extending the tax provisions would prevent an average tax increase of $2,000, with nearly half of the benefits going to households with incomes of $450,000 or more.

Fiscal Stimulus Promised from New Tax Breaks

Trump also has a full set of brand-new tax proposals. These proposals include ending taxation on Social Security benefits, tipped income and overtime pay. He also posited other ideas on the campaign trail, like creating an itemized tax deduction for interest on auto loans.

One review of the potential effects of these proposals by the Penn Wharton Budget Model showed that by 2026, the lowest earners would gain $320 in income, while the highest earners could see increases of $3,970 on average. The estimate showed that the top 0.1% could net up to $376,910.

However, while these changes could be substantial, they may not all be coming in 2025, as it could take time for Trump and Congress to implement all of the proposals, forecasters said.

Trump’s Fiscal Policies Could Raise Deficit, Push Interest Rates Higher

While Trump’s fiscal policies are expected to support the economy, they are also expected to increase the deficit. Lower tax collection may mean the government has to take on more debt to meet its spending obligations. 

Some of these increased costs will be offset by policies that could generate more revenue or cut spending levels. For example, Trump’s proposals for increased tariffs on foreign trade would bring in additional revenue.

Trump has also proposed cutting some spending, such as reclaiming unspent money on “Green New Deal” type projects in the Inflation Reduction Act. The “DOGE” committee, co-headed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, has also pledged to cut trillions in government spending.

However, many economists don’t believe those offsets will be enough to make up for the increased fiscal deficit that Trump’s tax breaks would create. Even when taking into account the proposed new revenue, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump’s fiscal policies could increase the federal deficit by $7.75 trillion over 10 years.

The increased debt levels could come with a bite, though, as economists have warned that soaring deficits could drive interest rates higher.